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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Atmosphere in the Earth System     Display Documents

ID: 174042.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Atmosphere in the Earth System
Radiative forcing in the 21st century due to ozone changes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere
Authors:Gauss, M.; Myhre, G.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M. J.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Berntsen, T. K.; Brasseur, Guy P.; Dentener, F. J.; Derwent, R. G.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Horowitz, L. W.; Jacob, D. J.; Johnson, M.; Law, K. S.; Mickley, L. J.; Muller, J. F.; Plantevin, P. H.; Pyle, J. A.; Rogers, H. L.; Stevenson, D. S.; Sundet, J. K.; van Weele, M.; Wild, O.
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2003-05-13
Title of Journal:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres
Journal Abbrev.:J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.
Issue / Number:D9
Sequence Number of Article:4292
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone is expected for the 21st century. An assessment on changes in the tropospheric oxidative state through a model intercomparison ("OxComp'') was conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report (IPCC-TAR). OxComp estimated tropospheric changes in ozone and other oxidants during the 21st century based on the "SRES'' A2p emission scenario. In this study we analyze the results of 11 chemical transport models (CTMs) that participated in OxComp and use them as input for detailed radiative forcing calculations. We also address future ozone recovery in the lower stratosphere and its impact on radiative forcing by applying two models that calculate both tropospheric and stratospheric changes. The results of OxComp suggest an increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone between 11.4 and 20.5 DU for the 21st century, representing the model uncertainty range for the A2p scenario. As the A2p scenario constitutes the worst case proposed in IPCC-TAR we consider these results as an upper estimate. The radiative transfer model yields a positive radiative forcing ranging from 0.40 to 0.78 W m(-2) on a global and annual average. The lower stratosphere contributes an additional 7.5-9.3 DU to the calculated increase in the ozone column, increasing radiative forcing by 0.15-0.17 W m(-2). The modeled radiative forcing depends on the height distribution and geographical pattern of predicted ozone changes and shows a distinct seasonal variation. Despite the large variations between the 11 participating models, the calculated range for normalized radiative forcing is within 25%, indicating the ability to scale radiative forcing to global-mean ozone column change.
Comment of the Author/Creator:Date: 2003, MAY 13
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/The Atmosphere in the Earth System
External Affiliations:Univ Oslo, Dept Geophys, N-0315 Oslo, Norway.; Univ Aquila, Dipartimento Fis, I-67010 Coppito, Laquila, Italy.; Univ Calif Irvine, Earth Syst Sci Dept, Irvine, CA 92697 USA.; Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.; Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Climate Change Unit, I-21020 Ispra, Italy.; UK Met Off, Div Climate Res, Bracknell RG12 2SZ, Berks, England.; Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.; Princeton Univ, NOAA, GFDL, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA.; Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.; Univ Cambridge, Dept Chem, Cambridge CB2 1TN, England.; Inst Aeron Spatiale Belgique, B-1180 Brussels, Belgium.; Univ Edinburgh, Inst Meteorol, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Midlothian, Scotland.; Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands.; Frontier Res Syst Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan.
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