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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Atmosphere in the Earth System     Display Documents



  history
ID: 224010.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Atmosphere in the Earth System
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability
Authors:Johannssen, O. M.; Bengtsson, Lennart; Miles, M. W.; Kuzmina, S. I.; Semenov, V. A.; Alekseev, G. V.; Nagurnyi, A. P.; Zakharov, V. F.; Bobylev, L. P.; Pettersson, L. H.; Hasselmann, Klaus F.; Cattle, A. P.
Language:English
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2004-08
Title of Journal:Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Journal Abbrev.:Tellus Ser. A-Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanol.
Volume:56
Issue / Number:4
Start Page:328
End Page:341
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:Changes apparent in the arctic climate system in recent years require evaluation in a century-scale perspective in order to assess the Arctic's response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. Here, a new set of century- and multidecadal-scale observational data of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice is used in combination with ECHAM4 and HadCM3 coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean global model simulations in order to better determine and understand arctic climate variability. We show that two pronounced twentieth-century warming events, both amplified in the Arctic, were linked to sea-ice variability. SAT observations and model simulations indicate that the nature of the arctic warming in the last two decades is distinct from the early twentieth-century warm period. It is suggested strongly that the earlier warming was natural internal climate-system variability, whereas the recent SAT changes are a response to anthropogenic forcing. The area of arctic sea ice is furthermore observed to have decreased similar to8 x 10(5) km(2) (7.4%) in the past quarter century, with record-low summer ice coverage in September 2002. A set of model predictions is used to quantify changes in the ice cover through the twenty-first century, with greater reductions expected in summer than winter. In summer, a predominantly sea-ice-free Arctic is predicted for the end of this century
Free Keywords:NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; AIR-TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; SOLAR IRRADIANCE; GLOBAL CLIMATE; OCEAN; HEMISPHERE; SIMULATION; EXTENT; TRENDS
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/Emeriti
MPI für Meteorologie/Atmosphere in the Earth System
External Affiliations:Nansen Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, Bergen, Norway.; Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.; Univ Reading, Environm Syst Sci Ctr, Reading RG6 2AH, Berks, England.; Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway.; Environm Syst Anal Res Ctr, Boulder, CO USA.; Nansen Int Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, St Petersburg, Russia.; RAS, Obukhov Inst Atmospher Phys, Moscow 117901, Russia.; Arctic & Antarctic Res Inst, St Petersburg 199226, Russia.; Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Bracknell, Berks, England.
Identifiers:ISI:000223204300007
ISSN:0280-6495
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