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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Ocean in the Earth System     Display Documents



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ID: 224201.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Ocean in the Earth System
Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature
Authors:Latif, Mojib; Roeckner, Erich; Botzet, Michael; Esch, Monika; Haak, Helmut; Hagemann, Stefan; Jungclaus, Johann; Legutke, Stefanie; Marsland, Simon; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Mitchell, J.
Language:English
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2004-04
Title of Journal:Journal of Climate
Journal Abbrev.:J. Clim.
Volume:17
Issue / Number:7
Start Page:1605
End Page:1614
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-of-the-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades
Free Keywords:OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM; INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY; FLUX ADJUSTMENTS; COUPLED MODEL; CLIMATE MODEL; PREDICTABILITY; GREENHOUSE; OSCILLATION; SIMULATION; TRANSPORTS
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/The Ocean in the Earth System
MPI für Meteorologie/The Atmosphere in the Earth System
External Affiliations:Inst Meereskunde, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.; Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Met Off, Bracknell, Berks, England.
Identifiers:ISI:000220609700013
ISSN:0894-8755
DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1605:RMAPMC>2.0.CO;2
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