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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Atmosphere in the Earth System     Display Documents

ID: 256404.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Atmosphere in the Earth System
Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results
Authors:Deque, M.; Jones, R. G.; Wild, M.; Giorgi, F.; Christensen, J. H.; Hassell, D. C.; Vidale, P. L.; Rockel, B.; Jacob, D.; Kjellstrom, E.; de Castro, M.; Kucharski, F.; van den Hurk, B.
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2005-10
Title of Journal:Climate Dynamics
Journal Abbrev.:Clim. Dyn.
Issue / Number:6
Start Page:653
End Page:670
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Experts Only
Abstract / Description:Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs—in particular in terms of precipitation—is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs.
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/Atmosphere in the Earth System
External Affiliations:Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-31057 Toulouse, France.; Met Off, Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.; Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland.; Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy.; Danish Meteorol Inst, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.; GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, D-21502 Geesthacht, Germany.; Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden.; Univ Castilla La Mancha, Dept Ciencias Ambientales, E-45071 Toledo, Spain.; KNMI, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands.
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