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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Atmosphere in the Earth System     Display Documents

ID: 256473.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Atmosphere in the Earth System
The North Atlantic Oscillation and greenhouse-gas forcing
Authors:Kuzmina, Svetlana I.; Bengtsson, Lennart; Johannessen, Ola M.; Drange, Helge; Bobylev, Leonid P.; Miles, Martin W.
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2005-02-17
Title of Journal:Geophysical Research Letters
Journal Abbrev.:Geophys. Res. Lett.
Issue / Number:4
Sequence Number of Article:L04703
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:The results of 12 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are compared together with observational data in order to investigate: 1) How the current generation of climate models reproduce the major features of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and 2) How the NAO intensity and variability may change in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Long-term changes in the intensity and spatial position of the NAO nodes (Icelandic Low and Azores High) are investigated, and different definitions of the NAO index and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are considered. The observed temporal trend in the NAO in recent decades lies beyond the natural variability found in the model control runs. For the majority of the models, there is a significant increase in the NAO trend in the forced runs relative to the control runs, suggesting that the NAO may intensify with further increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations.
Free Keywords:1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (0429, 3309); 3309 Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408); 3337 Atmospheric Processes: Global climate models (1626, 4928)
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/Atmosphere in the Earth System
External Affiliations:Nansen Int Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, St Petersburg 197101, Russia.; Univ Reading, Evironm Syst Sci Ctr, Reading, Berks, England.; Nansen Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr, N-5006 Bergen, Norway.; Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.; Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.; Environm Syst Anal Res Ctr, Boulder, CO USA.
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