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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Ocean in the Earth System     Display Documents

ID: 271148.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Ocean in the Earth System
Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multimodel-Ensemble Study
Authors:Collins, M.; Botzet, M.; Carril, A. F.; Drange, H.; Jouzeau, A.; Latif, M.; Masina, S.; Otteraa, O. H.; Pohlmann, H.; Sorteberg, A.; Sutton, R.; Terray, L.
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2006-04
Title of Journal:Journal of Climate
Journal Abbrev.:J. Clim.
Issue / Number:7
Start Page:1195
End Page:1203
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/Ocean in the Earth System
External Affiliations:Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; CERFACS, Toulouse, France; Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Kiel, Germany; Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Reading, United Kingdom
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