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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Atmosphere in the Earth System     Display Documents



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ID: 304938.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Atmosphere in the Earth System
Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes
Authors:Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Stevenson, D. S.; Krol, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Lamarque, J. F.; Petron, G.; Dentener, F. J.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bey, I.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Collins, W. J.; Derwent, R. G.; Doherty, R. M.; Drevet, J.; Eskes, H. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Horowitz, L. W.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Lawrence, M. G.; Montanaro, V.; Mueller, J. F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M. J.; Pyle, J. A.; Rast, S.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Sanderson, M. G.; Savage, N. H.; Strahan, S. E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Unger, N.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Zeng, G.
Language:English
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2006-10-14
Title of Journal:Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres
Journal Abbrev.:J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.
Volume:111
Issue / Number:D19
Sequence Number of Article:D19306
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10–20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20–30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20–35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30–70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/Atmosphere in the Earth System
External Affiliations:Columbia Univ, NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA.; Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Midlothian, Scotland.; SRON, NL-3584 CA Utrecht, Netherlands.; Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Wageningen, Netherlands.; Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Div Atmospher Chem, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.; NOAA, Global Monitoring Div, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.; Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, Italy.; Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, N-0317 Oslo, Norway.; Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Frontier Res Ctr Global Change, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan.; Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.; Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Div Atmospher Sci, Livermore, CA 94550 USA.; Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.; Max Planck Inst Chem, D-55128 Mainz, Germany.; Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England.; Rdscientific, Newbury RG14 6LH, Berks, England.; Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands.; NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA.; Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.; Univ Aquila, Dipartimento Fis, I-67010 Coppito, Italy.; Inst Aeron Spatiale Belgique, B-1180 Brussels, Belgium.; Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA.; Univ Cambridge, Ctr Atmospher Sci, Cambridge CB2 1EW, England.; Goddard Earth Sci & Technol Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 21228 USA.
Identifiers:ISI:000241297400004 [ID No:1]
ISSN:0148-0227 [ID No:2]
DOI:10.1029/2006JD007100
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