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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Atmosphere in the Earth System     Display Documents



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ID: 430795.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Atmosphere in the Earth System
A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions
Authors:Kloster, S.; Dentener, F.; Feichter, J.; Raes, F.; Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.; Fischer-Bruns, I.
Language:English
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2010
Title of Journal:Climate Dynamics
Journal Abbrev.:Clim. Dyn.
Start Page:1177
End Page:1194
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:We use the global atmospheric GCM aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM to asses possible impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate. Air quality control strategies focus on the reduction of aerosol emissions.
Here we investigate the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe abatement of aerosols in the near term future (2030) in combination with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The temperature response of increasing GHG concentrations and reduced aerosol emissions leads to a global annual mean equilibrium temperature response of 2.18 K. When aerosols are maximally abated only in the Industry and Powerplant sector, while other sectors stay with currently enforced regulations, the temperature response is 1.89 K. A maximum feasible abatement applied in the Domestic and Transport sector, while other sectors remain with the current legislation, leads to a temperature response of 1.39 K. Increasing GHG concentrations alone lead to a temperature response of 1.20 K. We also simulate 2–5% increases in global mean precipitation among all scenarios considered, and the hydrological sensitivity is found to be significantly higher for aerosols than for GHGs. Our study, thus highlights the huge potential impact of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate and supports the need for urgent GHG emission reductions. GHG and aerosol forcings are not independent as both affect and are influenced by changes in the hydrological cycle. However, within the given range of changes in aerosol emissions and GHG concentrations considered in this study, the climate response towards increasing GHG concentrations and decreasing aerosols emissions is additive.
Free Keywords:Climate change, Aerosol,Air pollution, Mitigation
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/Atmosphere in the Earth System
Identifiers:DOI:10.1007/s00382-009-0573-0
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