


ID:
442832.0,
MPI für Meteorologie / Atmosphere in the Earth System 
Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to nonintervention scenarios 
Authors:  Tomassini, L.; Knutti, R.; Plattner, G.K.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Stocker, T. F.; Howarth, R. B.; Borsuk, M. E.  Language:  English  Date of Publication (YYYYMMDD):  201012  Title of Journal:  Climatic Change  Volume:  103  Start Page:  399  End Page:  422  Review Status:  Peerreview  Audience:  Not Specified  Abstract / Description:  Probabilistic climate projections based on two SRES scenarios, an IMAGE reference scenario and five IMAGE mitigation scenarios (all of them multigas scenarios) using the Bern2.5D climate model are calculated. Probability distributions of climate model parameters that are constrained by observations are employed as input for the climate model. The sensitivity of the resulting distributions with respect to prior assumptions on climate sensitivity is then assessed. Due to system inertia, prior assumptions on climate sensitivity play a minor role in the case of temperature projections for the first half of the 21st century, but these assumptions have a considerable influence on the distributions of the projected temperature increase in the year 2100. Upper and lower probabilities for exceeding 2°C by the year 2100 are calculated for the different scenarios. Only the most stringent mitigation measures lead to low probabilities for exceeding the 2°C threshold. This finding is robust with respect to our prior assumptions on climate sensitivity. Further, probability distributions of total presentvalue damages over the period 20002100 for the different scenarios are calculated assuming a wide range of damage cost functions, and the sensitivity of these distributions with respect to the assumed discount rate is investigated. Absolute values of damage costs depend heavily on the chosen damage cost function and discount rate. Nevertheless, some robust conclusions are possible.  External Publication Status:  published  Document Type:  Article 
Communicated by:  Carola Kauhs  Affiliations:  MPI für Meteorologie/Atmosphere in the Earth System
 Identifiers:  DOI:10.1007/s1058400997633 URL:http://springerlink.metapress.com/content/u96263u2...  


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