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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Fellows     Display Documents



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ID: 549021.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Fellows
A demonstration of long-term memory and climate predictability
Authors:Zhu, X.; Fraedrich, K.; Liu, Z.; Blender, R.
Language:English
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2010
Title of Journal:Journal of Climate
Volume:23
Start Page:5021
End Page:5029
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:Climate forecast skills are evaluated for surface temperature time series at grid points of a millennium control simulation from a state-of-the-art global circulation model [ECHAM5-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM)]. First, climate predictability is diagnosed in terms of potentially predictable variance fractions and the fluctuation power-law exponent (using detrended fluctuation analysis). Long-term memory (LTM) with a fluctuation exponent (or Hurst exponent) close to 0.9 occurs mainly in high-latitude oceans, which are also characterized by high potential predictability. Next, explicit prediction experiments for various time steps are conducted on a gridpoint basis using an autocorrelation predictor. In regions with LTM, prediction skills are beyond that expected from red noise persistence-exceptions occur in some areas in the southern oceans and over the Northern Hemisphere continents. Extending the predictability analysis to the fully forced simulation shows a large improvement in prediction skills. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/IMPRS Earth System Modelling
MPI für Meteorologie/Fellows
Identifiers:DOI:10.1029/2006GL027291
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