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          Institute: MPI für Meteorologie     Collection: Ocean in the Earth System     Display Documents



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ID: 563958.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Ocean in the Earth System
Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ccean Carbon uptake: A multimodel linear feedback analysis
Authors:Roy, T.; Bopp, L.; Gehlen, M.; Schneider, B.; Cadule, P.; Frölicher, T. L.; Segschneider, J.; Tjiputra, J.; Heinze, C.; Joos, F.
Language:English
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2011
Title of Journal:Journal of Climate
Volume:24
Start Page:2300
End Page:2318
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:The increase in atmospheric CO2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air sea CO2 uptake, which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO2 itself and climate change. Here, the future oceanic CO2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high-emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully separates the regional future (2010-2100) oceanic CO2 uptake into a CO2-induced component, due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a climate-induced component, due to global warming. The models capture the observation-based magnitude and distribution of anthropogenic CO2 uptake. The distributions of the climate-induced component are broadly consistent between the models, with reduced CO2 uptake in the subpolar Southern Ocean and the equatorial regions, owing to decreased CO2 solu
bility; and reduced CO2 uptake in the midlatitudes, owing to decreased CO2 solubility and increased vertical stratification. The magnitude of the climate-induced component is sensitive to local warming in the southern extratropics, to large freshwater fluxes in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean, and to small changes in the CO2 solubility in the equatorial regions. In key anthropogenic CO2 uptake regions, the climate-induced component offsets the CO2-induced component at a constant proportion up until the end of this century. This amounts to approximately 50% in the northern extratropics and 25% in the southern extratropics and equatorial regions. Consequently, the detection of climate change impacts on anthropogenic CO2 uptake may be difficult without monitoring additional tracers, such as oxygen.
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/Ocean in the Earth System
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