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250788.0 [No comment] 17.03.2007 14:50 Released

ID: 250788.0, MPI für Meteorologie / Atmosphere in the Earth System
On the natural variability of the pre-industrial climate
Authors:Bengtsson, Lennart; Hodges, K.I.; Roeckner, Erich; Brokopf, Renate
Date of Publication (YYYY-MM-DD):2006
Title of Journal:Climate Dynamics
Start Page:743
End Page:760
Review Status:Peer-review
Audience:Not Specified
Abstract / Description:We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the “pre-industrial” period 1500–1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system. This is because a model simulation, using fixed pre-industrial forcing, in several important aspects is consistent with recent observational reconstructions at high temporal resolution. This includes extreme warm and cold seasonal events as well as different measures of the decadal to multi-decadal variance. Significant trends of 50-year duration can be seen in the model simulation. While the global temperature is highly correlated with ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation), European seasonal temperature is only weakly correlated with the global temperature broadly consistent with data from ERA-40 reanalyses. Seasonal temperature anomalies of the European land area are largely controlled by the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. We believe the result is highly relevant for the interpretation of past observational records suggesting that the effect of external forcing appears to be of secondary importance. That variations in the solar irradiation could have been a credible cause of climate variations during the last centuries, as suggested in some previous studies, is presumably due to the fact that the models used in these studies may have underestimated the internal variability of the climate. The general interpretation from this study is that the past climate is just one of many possible realizations and thus in many respects not reproducible in its time evolution with a general circulation model but only reproducible in a statistical sense.
External Publication Status:published
Document Type:Article
Communicated by:Carola Kauhs
Affiliations:MPI für Meteorologie/Atmosphere in the Earth System
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